In this Market Update, we review the latest housing data from April 2025, highlighting key developments across six counties: Bergen, Morris, Passaic, and Sussex in New Jersey, and Orange and Rockland in New York. We then forecast market conditions for May and June 2025, examining trends in inventory, prices, and buyer competition in each county. Finally, we look ahead to the broader 6-month horizon, offering insights on mortgage rates, supply constraints, and emerging buyer and seller dynamics. Whether you’re planning to buy, sell, or just keep tabs on the market, this report will help you navigate current conditions—and what may lie ahead.

Summary of the Most Recent Market Data & Past Trends

High Mortgage Rates & Buyer Sentiment

In April, thirty-year fixed mortgage rates remained in the mid to high 6 percent range. Housing affordability therefore continues to be a challenge, but the psychological adjustment that began last year is now evident: Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index held at 69.2 in April and the share of consumers who think it is a good time to buy inched up to 23% (up from 22% in May & 14% the prior year). Importantly, 44% of respondents expect home prices to keep rising, while only 23 % expect mortgage rates to fall in the next 12 months, signaling that many households no longer expect a quick return to 3%–4% mortgages and are ready to transact when the right property appears.

Persistent Inventory Shortages

Spring usually swells the listing count, and April was no exception, yet supply is still lean by historical standards. For context, a balanced market typically carries five- to six-months’ supply; most of our counties remain nearer two. The structural shortage is sustained by two forces:

  1. Rate-lock inertia—owners with sub 4% mortgages hesitate to trade up at today’s rates.
  2. Limited new-build supply—permits and completions remain far below household-formation needs throughout the NY–NJ metro.

Consequently, desirable listings in North Jersey still draw multiple offers within days, while the Hudson Valley shows the first hints of normalization rather than true abundance of choice.

A Look at April Sales Activity

April closed-sale counts underscore that demand is being capped by supply rather than waning buyer interest. Here's a brief county-by-county overview:

  • Bergen County (NJ): 361 closed sales, (+3.1% YOY)
  • Morris County (NJ): 248 closed sales, (-10.5% YOY)
  • Passaic County (NJ): 153 closed sales, (+7.7% YOY)
  • Sussex County (NJ): 122 closed sales, (-10.3% YOY)
  • Orange County (NY): 177 closed sales, (-2.2% YOY)
  • Rockland County (NY): 93 closed sales, (-13.1% YOY)

A Look at April Pricing Trends

Prices in April continued to respond to the tug-of-war between scarce supply and stretched affordability:

  • Bergen County (NJ): $815,000 median sales price, (+10.1% YOY)
  • Morris County (NJ): $732,450 median sales price, (+7.7% YOY)
  • Passaic County (NJ): $587,000 median sales price, (+11.7% YOY)
  • Sussex County (NJ): $440,500 median sales price, (+6.1% YOY)
  • Orange County (NY): $442,500 median sales price, (-2.7% YOY)
  • Rockland County (NY): $746,000 median sales price, (+0.8% YOY)

The pattern is telling, appreciation persists in New Jersey counties, while New York’s suburbs are flattening out. Sale-to-list ratios corroborate this split—NJ averages remain above 102 %, whereas Rockland and Orange hover around (or just under) 100 %. Cumulatively, the April data reveal a market seller-skewed in North Jersey, neutralizing in the lower-Hudson Valley, and poised for gradual re-balancing rather than abrupt price corrections.

Forecast (May and June 2025)

Looking ahead to May and June 2025, we provide detailed forecasts for each of the six counties on key market indicators: Active listings, New listings, Median sale price, Sale-price to list-price ratio, and Days on Market (DOM). Each forecast is derived from a data-driven modeling process, incorporating seasonal trends, market momentum, and statistical relationships.

Bergen County, NJ:

  • Inventory: Active single-family listings were 982 in April. Seasonal growth of roughly 10% should lift them to ≈1,080 in May and a further 7–8 % to ≈1,150–1,180 in June. New-listing flow (737 in April) is expected to crest near ≈920 in May and ease toward ≈880 in June.
  • Prices: April’s median sale price was $815k. A modest spring premium puts May near $830k and June around $840k.
  • Competition & Market Speed: The sale-to-list ratio (105.6 % in April) is likely to cool to 104–105 % in May and 103–104 % in June. Median DOM should hover in the low- to mid-30s (April = 37 days), inching up if inventory builds.

Morris County, NJ:

  • Inventory: April inventory stood at 560. A 15 % May jump takes it to ≈640, followed by another 10 % to ≈700+ in June. New listings should peak near 620 in May and hold close to 600 in June.
  • Prices: With an April median of $732k, forecasts point to ~$750k in May and low-$760k’s in June (≈8 % YoY).
  • Competition & Market Speed: Sale-to-list (106.7 % in April) is projected to slip to ≈104–105 % in May and ≈103–104 % by June. DOM remains exceptionally low: 25–28 days in May, edging toward ≈30 in June.

Passaic County, NJ:

  • Inventory: April’s 372 actives are expected to reach ≈410 in May and ≈440 in June. New listings should run ≈320 (May) and ≈300 (June).
  • Prices: From an April median of $587k, look for $600–605k in May and $610–620k in June, with YoY gains tapering to mid-single digits.
  • Competition & Market Speed: Sale-to-list (104.8 %) likely eases to ≈103 % in May and ≈102 % in June. DOM may compress to ≈28–30 days in May before widening toward ≈35–40 days as supply grows.

Sussex County, NJ:

  • Inventory: Active listings were 368 in April; expect ≈440+ in May and ≈480+ in June. New listings peak near 300 in May, then slip to ≈260.
  • Prices: April median $441k; forecasts call for $450k in May and mid-$450k’s in June—YoY appreciation slowing to ≈5%.
  • Competition & Market Speed: Sale-to-list softens from 103.7 % to ≈101–102 % (May) and ≈100 % (June). DOM holds near 35 days in May and drifts to ≈40 by June.

Orange County, NY:

  • Inventory: April inventory of 748 should grow to ≈820–830 in May and ≈880–900 in June. New listings: ≈560 (May) and ≈520 (June).
  • Prices: April median $442k. Stabilisation is expected: $445–450k in May and ≈$450k in June, leaving YoY change near zero.
  • Competition & Market Speed: Sale-to-list rests in the 98–99 % band. DOM likely lengthens from 75 days (April) to ≈80–85 in May and ≈85–90 in June, confirming a buyer-friendly tilt.

Rockland County, NY:

  • Inventory: April’s 391 actives may rise to ≈420 in May and ≈440 in June; new listings peak around 350–360 in May.
  • Prices: With an April median of $746 k, expect ≈$755 k in May and ≈$760 k in June, equating to muted 3–5 % YoY growth.
  • Competition & Market Speed: Sale-to-list (98.7 %) should hover ≈99 % by May–June. DOM is projected to stretch from 55 days (April) to ≈60 in May and ≈65 in June, signaling a move toward balance.

6 Month Regional Market Outlook (May–October 2025)

Taking a broader view, we assess the likely trajectory of the regional housing market encompassing all six counties over the next six months. This combined outlook highlights expected trends in mortgage rates, policy impacts, buyer vs. seller dynamics, and inventory/price movements for the region as a whole.

  1. Mortgage Rates & Affordability: Mortgage rates are expected to gradually decline over the next six months, potentially reaching 6.3–6.5% by October, down from 6.8% in May. Fannie Mae forecasts suggest rates could end 2025 near 6.1%. This slow easing may improve affordability and draw some sidelined buyers back, although affordability will remain stretched due to elevated borrowing costs and home prices. A modest rate decline could also free up supply, as some homeowners locked into ultra-low rates may be more willing to list. However, shifts in behavior will be gradual. If the economy weakens, rates may drop more quickly, but buyer confidence could falter. Conversely, stronger economic data could stall any rate relief. The baseline scenario is a slightly improving rate environment that supports housing activity by late 2025, but doesn't trigger a major surge in demand.
  2. Inventory Projections: Inventory across the six counties is projected to rise through summer, peaking in July or August before dipping in the fall. By October, active listings could be 10–20% higher than a year prior, primarily because of slow sales and longer time on market, not a dramatic new supply influx. Still, even with this increase, inventory will remain far below pre-2020 levels. New construction and distressed sales will not meaningfully lift supply in the short term. Thus, while buyers will enjoy slightly more choice, the region will stay fundamentally undersupplied. Sellers will begin to face more competition, especially as fall approaches and listings sit longer.
  3. Sales Volume: Buyer activity may rise modestly as rates inch down and inventory improves. However, persistent affordability challenges and limited new construction will likely constrain total transaction volume. Strong regional job markets will also help sustain baseline demand. Any surge in sales volume would likely depend on a more noticeable mortgage rate drop, which is not expected until later in the year.
  4. Home Prices & Market Balance: Price growth will slow across the region. By fall, Bergen and Morris could see around +5% YoY gains, while Passaic and Sussex may end up with +2–4%. Rockland and Orange may experience flat or slightly negative year-over-year changes. The region is brushing up against an affordability ceiling, and rising inventory is increasing seller competition. A sharp price correction is unlikely—there’s no evidence of a bubble—but a plateau or mild softening is probable in several counties. Luxury homes may be most affected, while entry-level properties under $500K should hold their value better due to limited supply and high demand. Market dynamics will vary: Morris and Bergen will remain seller-leaning, while Rockland trends neutral and Orange transitions more clearly into buyer territory. By October, expect fewer bidding wars, more contingent offers, and a shift toward balanced or slightly buyer-favored negotiations, especially in NY counties.

Forecast Methodology

These forecasts are based on time-series models and regression analysis applied to county-level housing data, capturing seasonal patterns and key market relationships like inventory, pricing, and days on market. Broader factors—such as mortgage rate forecasts, employment trends, and buyer sentiment (e.g., Fannie Mae HPSI)—were included to improve accuracy. Forecasts assume no major economic or policy shocks and reflect a baseline of gradual normalization. We also validated projections against recent weekly trends to ensure alignment with evolving market conditions.

Final Thoughts

As we move through summer into fall 2025, the six-county housing market is transitioning toward balance. Buyer leverage is increasing—especially in the New York counties—while seller dominance in North Jersey is gradually easing. Multiple-offer scenarios are becoming less common; even in hot submarkets, listings may receive a handful of offers instead of a bidding frenzy. This softening should pull sale-to-list ratios closer to 100% or slightly below across much of the region by fall.

Rising rents (expected to increase ~5% this year) may keep some renters motivated to buy, supporting baseline demand despite affordability challenges. Still, high mortgage rates remain a major swing factor. If rates dip faster than forecast, we could see late-year demand rebound. Conversely, a rate spike or recession could cool the market further. Barring those risks, we expect a return to 2018–2019-like conditions: more balanced, slower-paced, and fundamentally healthier than the recent pandemic boom.

For Buyers

  • You’ll likely face less competition and have more time to evaluate options by late summer, especially in Orange and Rockland counties.
  • Most homes are expected to sell near or slightly below list price.
  • Keep an eye on rent costs; elevated rents may make homeownership the more stable long-term option.

For Sellers

  • Don’t expect bidding wars to drive prices significantly over ask—pricing accurately is critical.
  • Homes that linger may require price adjustments or concessions like closing credits to attract offers.
  • Present your home well and act sooner rather than later, before market momentum slows further in fall.

In short, the market is cooling, not collapsing—offering more breathing room for buyers and requiring sharper strategy from sellers. We’ll return with fresh analysis once May’s figures have been reported.

 

Until then, happy home buying and selling from the team at Ridge & Valley Real Estate!

 

Disclaimers

  • Not Financial or Legal Advice: The information in this post is based on data trends and forecasting models. It should not be considered personalized financial or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making real estate or investment decisions.
  • Uncertain Future Events: Real estate markets are sensitive to factors such as interest rates, economic policies, and broader economic shifts. Any unexpected change in these elements could alter the forecasts provided here.
  • Local Variations: Even within the counties discussed, there can be significant variations from one neighborhood or price segment to another. Local conditions can fluctuate rapidly, so these summaries may not apply uniformly to every part of each county.

Sources